Tuesday, February 23, 2016 — 9:20 AM
This Afternoon — Increasing clouds with showers becoming likely this evening. High: 61°. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
HRRR loop through 9 PM:
A surface low currently stationed over parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana is move NE towards us, spreading lots of cloud cover into our area today and eventually rain this evening.
GFS (the ‘big’ picture):
NAM 4km — 2 AM, Wednesday:
As the low passes over us, we’re going to see pretty much everything this system has to offer (except for severe weather; that should remain well to our south). Rain will become widespread by midnight, with embedded thunderstorms possible. Don’t be alarmed should you be woken up in the middle of the night by thunder. Again, no severe worries here.
Wednesday — a few showers early, rain becoming likely again around noon. Wake up: 56°. Temperatures falling into the 40s during the afternoon.
It looks like we could see a ‘semi-break’ in the rain beginning around the time of our morning commute and lasting through about noon. We could still see some scattered showers during this time, but the heavy stuff will have moved off to our NE.
NAM 4km — 1 PM Wednesday:
More showers will be likely tomorrow afternoon on the back side of the low as it begins to move out of here. Colder temperatures will also be pulled down from the north, with our high for the day likely occurring in the morning.Temperatures will steadily fall throughout the day — into the low to mid 40s by sunset.
NAM 4km — 9 PM Wednesday:
Enough cold air will be pulled down from the north to allow a transition from rain to a rain/snow mix to occur. The NAM 4km (above) is depicting this as mostly rain, but it’s been acting kind of finicky lately when trying to differentiate between rain and snow. Right now, we’re thinking this will be mostly snow.
However…
We’re not expecting any accumulation.
Although temperatures aloft might be cold enough to support snow, temperatures here at the surface will likely be too warm for anything to accumulate.
Why?
1) Temperatures look to remain just above freezing overnight Wednesday and into Thursday.
2) Ground temperatures will be well above freezing from how warm it’s been.
So, yeah… No snow accumulation, at least as it appears at this time.
Once everything settles down, we’ll be left much much colder temperatures for our Thursday and Friday. And just when we thought spring was trying to get an early start…
If there’s any good news, it’s that temperatures look to rebound over the weekend, so at least the cold air will be short-lived.
Extended:
Forecast data originates from the National Weather Service
Model data is provided by WeatherBELL Analytics
Smith County Weather is an official member of the National Weather Service, Nashville’s #tSpotter Network
