Monday, February 22, 2016 — 4:33 PM
An abundance of cloud cover has held temperatures today down to only the mid to upper 50s. A disturbance passing to our southeast could potentially bring us a small shower chance later this evening, although models are in disagreement about that, as you can see below:
HRRR loop through 3 AM Tuesday:
NAM 4km — 8 PM Tonight:
HRRR thinks the showers will miss us, while the NAM 4km has the showers brushing us as they pass by. We’ll have to wait and see which model pans out, although if we do see any rain, it should be on the light side.
Tuesday — Cloudy. Slight chance of shower before noon. Showers increasing in coverage in the afternoon/evening. Wake up: 43°, High: 60°. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
NAM 4km — Noon Tuesday:
NAM 4km — 4 PM Tuesday:
Much of tomorrow will be dry, with only a slight chance of a shower through the early afternoon hours. Later in the afternoon, scattered showers will begin to increase in coverage, becoming widespread by midnight.
NAM 4km — 11 PM Tuesday:
Embedded thunderstorms will be possible with the rain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but we aren’t anticipating any severe weather at this time, although it’s worth noting that severe weather will be possible over parts of southern Middle Tennessee — but the Storm Prediction Center only has us outlined for general thunderstorms in their Day 2 outlook.
“The BIG Picture” (GFS):
A surface low passing directly over our area is the culprit behind Tuesday night/Wednesday’s rain and thunderstorm chances. We’re looking at rainfall accumulations anywhere from 1 to 2 inches. With the ground already saturated from all the rain we’ve received lately, we’ll have to watch for rising water concerns, but *right now*, we’re not too worried about potential flooding issues.
With this low passing directly overhead, that puts us in position to receive a little bit of everything this system has to throw at us, including…
Wait for it…
Snow.
…but it’s not what you think.
Colder air will be pulled in on the back side of this low, allowing for a transition from rain to snow to possibly take place late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning.
GFS — Late Wednesday Night/Early Thursday Morning:
This looks to be a good news/bad news situation, depending on which camp you fall into. If the thought of snow covering the ground is repulsive to you, especially after all of the snow we’ve dealt with so far this winter, then you’ll be pleased to know that we aren’t expecting much, if any, accumulation with this event. Conversely, those who love snow probably won’t like that news, but it is what it is.
Why are we not expecting accumulation?
Surface temperatures.
Although temperatures above us will be cold enough to support snow, temperatures here at the surface look to be just a little too warm for snow to accumulate. Officially, we’re going with a low of 33° overnight Wednesday, and say we did fall below freezing, the ground will be too warm. We’ll let you know if models begin to change their tune, but right now, this is looking to be a non-event.
We’ll begin to dry out Thursday, with colder temperatures taking us into the weekend.
Extended:
